Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.003539 0.003872 0.004227 0.004636 0.005095 0.005594 0.006182
2025-12-14 0.002942 0.003401 0.003926 0.004575 0.005360 0.006287 0.007474
2025-12-21 0.002569 0.003079 0.003688 0.004478 0.005486 0.006745 0.008460
2025-12-28 0.002321 0.002861 0.003529 0.004431 0.005633 0.007205 0.009463
2026-01-04 0.002158 0.002726 0.003451 0.004463 0.005864 0.007777 0.010662
2026-01-11 0.001992 0.002567 0.003322 0.004404 0.005954 0.008151 0.011610
2026-01-18 0.001858 0.002439 0.003218 0.004365 0.006059 0.008544 0.012618
2026-01-25 0.001738 0.002317 0.003112 0.004310 0.006127 0.008879 0.013566
2026-02-01 0.001653 0.002238 0.003057 0.004320 0.006290 0.009368 0.014814
2026-02-08 0.001559 0.002139 0.002965 0.004267 0.006345 0.009684 0.015804
2026-02-15 0.001467 0.002038 0.002864 0.004187 0.006348 0.009913 0.016661
2026-02-22 0.001413 0.001988 0.002832 0.004215 0.006525 0.010445 0.018134
2026-03-01 0.001380 0.001970 0.002854 0.004334 0.006877 0.011341 0.020481
2026-03-08 0.001306 0.001887 0.002771 0.004277 0.006924 0.011701 0.021839
2026-03-15 0.001233 0.001799 0.002673 0.004188 0.006905 0.011932 0.022961
2026-03-22 0.001175 0.001733 0.002606 0.004145 0.006963 0.012315 0.024467
2026-03-29 0.001137 0.001696 0.002583 0.004174 0.007155 0.012980 0.026719
2026-04-05 0.001086 0.001634 0.002515 0.004120 0.007185 0.013317 0.028263
2026-04-12 0.001041 0.001582 0.002460 0.004084 0.007245 0.013722 0.030045
2026-04-19 0.000998 0.001528 0.002399 0.004033 0.007268 0.014051 0.031693
2026-04-26 0.000967 0.001495 0.002373 0.004043 0.007415 0.014667 0.034209
2026-05-03 0.000929 0.001447 0.002317 0.003993 0.007435 0.014998 0.036016
2026-05-10 0.000889 0.001394 0.002251 0.003920 0.007399 0.015194 0.037483